As I was finishing up our March newsletter last night at soccer practice, I saw that Housing Wire dropped a new podcast with Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors. The timing was perfect. We’re nine weeks into 2026, inventory is climbing, mortgage rates have dropped below 6%, and buyers who spent the last two years sitting on the sidelines are starting to move. Lautz’s spring 2026 housing market projections lined up closely with what we’re seeing here in Charlotte, and I wanted to break down what she’s saying nationally, what we’re seeing locally, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling this spring.
This isn’t a full-year forecast. It’s a tactical look at what’s likely to unfold over the next 90 days as we move through the heart of spring market season.
Kern’s Meadow neighborhood.
Inventory Will Build Through Spring and Summer
Lautz’s central theme is inventory growth. She expects active listings to increase steadily from March through August, with the strongest gains happening in April, May, and June. It’s based on historical seasonal patterns that are back after being disrupted during the pandemic years.
The mechanics are straightforward: sellers who held off listing in January and February because of weather, holidays, or general hesitation start putting homes on the market in March. That momentum builds through spring as more sellers realize the lock-in effect they’ve been worried about matters less than they thought. By summer, inventory typically peaks before softening again in fall and winter.
We’re seeing this pattern play out in Charlotte. February 2026 inventory hit 10,299 homes, up 14.4% from 9,004 homes in February 2025. Months of supply climbed to 2.9 months, up from 2.6 months last year. That’s still well below the 4-6 month range we’d consider balanced, but the trajectory is clear: more homes are coming to market, and that trend is accelerating as we move deeper into spring.
Lautz also noted something we’ve been talking about for months: the lock-in effect is softening. People who bought or refinanced at 3% rates in 2020-2021 spent the last few years frozen in place, unwilling to trade a low rate for a 7% mortgage. But as rates dropped into the low 6% range (and now below 6% in some cases), that situation is changing. Life events don’t stop because of interest rates. People get divorced, take new jobs, have kids, downsize after retirement. The question was never whether they’d move. It was when the market conditions would feel acceptable enough to act.
That moment is now. And when those move-up buyers sell their starter homes, they’re adding to the inventory pool that first-time buyers desperately need.
Mortgage Rates in the Low 6% Range Are Unlocking Demand
Lautz emphasized that mortgage rates matter less as an absolute number and more as a psychological threshold. The difference between 6.2% and 5.9% isn’t dramatic in terms of monthly payment. But crossing below 6% signals to buyers that rates are improving, not worsening. That shift in perception changes behavior.
She pointed to recent data showing refinance applications up significantly year-over-year while purchase applications are climbing more slowly. That gap tells you something important: people are responding to lower rates by refinancing existing mortgages, but they’re not all rushing to buy immediately. The demand is there. It’s just taking time to convert into actual transactions.
NAR’s research suggests that rates dropping below 6% could make homeownership affordable to an additional 5.5 million households nationwide. But only about 10% of those households will act in the near term. That translates to roughly 550,000 new buyers entering the market in 2026 who couldn’t afford to last year. It’s a meaningful increase, but it’s not a flood. The spring market will feel more active than 2023 or 2024, but it won’t feel like 2021.
Charlotte is following this pattern. February pending sales hit 3,552, up 4.8% from 3,390 in February 2025. New listings climbed 2.2% to 4,529. Those aren’t explosive numbers, but they confirm steady, sustainable growth. Buyers are entering the market, but they’re being deliberate. The frenzy is gone. The function is back.
First-Time Buyers Are Still Squeezed, But There Are Opportunities
Lautz spent significant time on first-time buyers, and the picture she painted isn’t encouraging overall. The typical first-time buyer is now 38 years old, up from 35 just a few years ago. They’re waiting longer to buy because saving for a down payment takes longer. Even with down payment assistance programs and lower-down-payment loan options, affordability remains a challenge.
She noted that first-time buyers made up about 24% of transactions in recent months, well below the historical norm of 40%. That’s a structural problem. When first-time buyers can’t enter the market, the entire housing ladder stalls. Move-up buyers can’t sell their starter homes. Empty nesters can’t downsize because there aren’t enough buyers for their larger homes. The market needs first-time buyers to function efficiently.
But here’s the nuance Lautz highlighted: first-time buyers who do manage to get into the market right now are entering at a relatively advantageous time. Inventory is higher than it’s been in years. Competition is lower. Sellers are more willing to negotiate. Days on market are longer, which means buyers have time to do their due diligence without panic.
Charlotte data supports this. Days on market in February averaged 46 days, up 39.4% from 33 days in February 2025. Sellers received 96.5% of their original asking price, down from 97.5% last year. Those are small shifts, but they matter. A buyer who would have been in a bidding war two years ago can now schedule a second showing, bring in an inspector, and negotiate repairs. That’s a fundamentally different experience.
The challenge for first-time buyers isn’t whether homes are available. It’s whether they can afford them. And that’s where the broader economic picture matters: wage growth, student loan burdens, childcare costs, and whether rates continue drifting lower throughout 2026.
Generational Patterns Are Shifting
Anyone who knows me knows I love talking about generations. It’s a long-standing conversation in our family between Brian (who is solidly Gen X), me (I insist that Xennials are a legitimate microgeneration), and our kids who span Gen Z, Zalpha, and Gen Alpha depending on which demographer you ask. So when Lautz started breaking down generational buying patterns, I was paying attention.
The data reveals some interesting shifts. Millennials (now in their 30s and early 40s) are still the largest cohort of buyers, but they’re aging into move-up buyer territory. They’re not buying starter homes anymore. They’re buying bigger homes in better school districts, which puts pressure on inventory in the $400,000-$600,000 range.
Gen Z buyers (early-to-mid 20s) are just starting to enter the market, and they’re facing the same affordability challenges Millennials faced a decade ago, but with higher interest rates. They’re more likely to use down payment assistance, more likely to buy condos or townhomes instead of single-family homes, and more likely to prioritize location over space.
Boomers, meanwhile, are aging in place longer than previous generations. Lautz noted that many Boomers who were expected to downsize and free up larger homes for move-up buyers are choosing to stay put. Some of that is financial (they have low mortgage rates or own their homes outright). Some of that is emotional (they’re not ready to leave homes where they raised families). Either way, it means fewer larger homes are coming to market than demographic projections would suggest.
Charlotte’s housing stock reflects these dynamics. The market is heavy on single-family homes in suburban neighborhoods, which Millennials and Gen X buyers want. It’s lighter on condos and townhomes, which first-time buyers and downsizing Boomers need. That mismatch creates pressure in some price ranges and relative calm in others.
Regional Variations Matter More Than Ever
One of Lautz’s most important points: national averages mask significant regional differences. Some markets are seeing strong inventory growth and modest price appreciation. Others are still supply-constrained with prices climbing faster than wage growth. The “housing market” isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s a collection of local markets behaving differently based on job growth, migration patterns, zoning policies, and construction activity.
Charlotte falls into the “strong growth, building inventory, moderating appreciation” category. We’re not Austin (which saw prices drop after a pandemic boom). We’re not Miami (which is still supply-constrained with rapid price growth). We’re somewhere in the middle: a market that grew quickly from 2020-2022, cooled significantly in 2023-2024, and is now finding equilibrium.
February’s 2.6% year-over-year price growth confirms this. It’s not explosive yet it’s sustainable. And for a market like Charlotte that’s still attracting in-migration from higher-cost metros, that’s probably the healthiest outcome we could hope for.
What This Means for Charlotte Over the Next 90 Days
If Lautz’s spring forecast plays out as expected, here’s what we’re likely to see in Charlotte through May:
Inventory will continue climbing. March, April, and May historically bring the most new listings. Sellers who were waiting for “the right time” will start listing. That means more choices for buyers, but also more competition for sellers who need to price and present their homes strategically.
Buyer activity will pick up gradually, not explosively. Pending sales will grow, but we’re not going back to 2021-style frenzy. Buyers have time to think. Sellers have time to negotiate. Homes that are well-priced will move within 30-60 days. Homes that are overpriced will sit.
First-time buyers who can afford to buy should act. Inventory is better now than it’s been in years. Competition is lower. Hopefully rates will hold steady but with foreign conflict that could change. If you’re pre-approved and you find a home that fits your budget and your life, there’s no strategic advantage to waiting.
Move-up buyers have an opportunity. If you’ve been locked in by your 3% mortgage but life circumstances mean you need to move, this spring is the time. You’ll get more for your current home than you would have in 2023 or 2024, and you’ll have more inventory to choose from when you buy. Yes, your new mortgage rate will be higher than your old one. But if the math works and the move improves your life, it makes sense to think of it as the rate difference is just a cost of doing business.
Sellers need to be strategic. With a few exceptions, the days of listing on Thursday and going under contract with multiple offers by Monday are over. Pricing and presentation matter. Homes that show well and are priced within 2-3% of market value will sell. Homes that are overpriced or neglected will sit, and every week on market makes buyers wonder what’s wrong.
Want to Go Deeper?
If you’re trying to understand why the Charlotte market feels fundamentally different from 2021-2022 and why that’s actually a good thing, I wrote about that pattern here: The Charlotte Metro Housing Market is Shifting Again- and This Time, It’s a Healthier Kind of Change
I also published a broader look at what leading housing economists are forecasting for 2026 as a whole and how those national trends are showing up locally: 2026 Housing Market Forecast: What Leading Economists Are Predicting for Charlotte
And if you want to see the most recent Charlotte market data, the March 2026 update is here: March 2026 Market Update: What You Need to Know
If you’re thinking about buying or selling this spring and want to talk through timing, pricing, or strategy, our team is always happy to walk through it with you. Click here to get started!
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